Mesmerizing maps reveal which cities around the world are most likely to fall apart

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Much of the world is making great leaps in technology, security, and public health. But some cities are getting left behind.

In these distressed urban areas, unemployment rates are high, equality is low, health care and safety are poor, and people fear for their lives on a daily basis, wondering if the government will ever step in to help.

Robbert Muggah, global security expert and research director at the think tank Igarapé Institute, has found 11 such factors that collectively make a city vulnerable to societal or economic collapse. Muggah calls this "fragility."

Using data from United Nations University, theWorld Economic Forum, and SecDev, Muggah has created a dynamic picture of where the most fragile cities are located. Small, blue dots represent stable cities. Large red ones are the most fragile.

Here are the cities around the world that are most likely to fall apart.

This is the world in 2015, the latest year with available data. Generally speaking, sub-Saharan Africa is the most fragile while eastern Asia and Europe are the most stable.

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In Africa, a few Somalian cities stand out: Mogadishu, Kismaayo, and Merca. By Muggah’s calculations, these are the three most fragile cities in the world.

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In 2016, Muggah calculated the 20 most fragile cities around the world. Each city’s fragility was rated on a scale of 1-4, with 1 being the least fragile and 4 being the most.

Mogadishu was the only city to score a 4. Kismaayo and Merca both received a 3.9.

"If there’s any good news," Muggah told Business Insider, "it’s that fragility is not a permanent condition." Countries that want to regain stability can focus on restoring order to their government to better ensure that people have access to basic rights like food, water, and health care.

While Turkey, Egypt, and Iraq face relatively low risks, nestled within the area is Syria, a hotbed of conflict and violence. Al-Raqqah, Aleppo, and Damascus are among the most fragile cities.

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Muggah said different parts of the world are fragile for different reasons.

The Middle East is fragile because of terrorism and rapid urbanization — caused by extremely high fertility rates — while Central America is marked by natural disasters and homicide.

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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